作者/Author(s): Jack Watling 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、俄烏、談判 

摘要：

烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基日前在國會公布了結束俄烏衝突的「勝利計畫」。但是烏克蘭軍隊內部改革不足，導致其他國家對「勝利計畫」有所存疑，不願意通過結盟方式來保證烏克蘭的安全。不論澤倫斯基的計畫多麼合理，他都必須想辦法削弱俄軍的實力，與盟友立場一致，才能在與普丁談判時獲得最大的籌碼。然而，烏克蘭的戰場形勢和外國支持正在衰弱，俄羅斯在戰事中逐步取得緩慢但重要的勝利。俄羅斯可以被遏制，但烏克蘭及其盟友必須加快行動。 

緩慢但持續進展 

  • 普丁正在逐步實現他的戰爭目標，所以他不會要求立即談判或撤軍。反觀烏克蘭軍隊兵力已達到超負載的危險程度，無法補充前線的傷亡，軍事補給也在快速消耗，前線部隊面臨危機。
  • 俄羅斯看準烏國軍力不斷減少，持續進攻。俄羅斯利用先進無人駕駛飛機不斷破壞烏克蘭的防空系統，在消滅烏克蘭軍力後號令軍隊加速移動，搶佔關鍵守備位置。 
  • 俄羅斯的戰略手段對其自身部隊同樣造成大量傷亡，但它能夠承受這樣的損失。按照俄羅斯進攻速度，普丁的目標最快能在明年實現，徹底擊潰烏軍，使其無法再向前推進，讓普丁在談判中手握有實質性籌碼。 
扭轉局勢 
  • 烏克蘭想要重新取得優勢，增加談判籌碼，必須優先且同時處理好幾件事。 
  • 烏克蘭必須限制俄羅斯的戰場監視能力，確保其火炮能夠保護前線部隊，挖掘更堅固的防線，並改善徵兵和訓練系統。
  • 烏克蘭的盟友可以通過幫助開發更有效的反無人機對策，加強遠程打擊能力，削弱俄軍，增加俄羅斯的戰爭成本。 
Summary: 
Ukraine's President Zelensky revealed his plan for winning the Russo-Ukraine War to his parliament and foreign partners. However, Ukraine's foreign backers doubted the plan because there were no sufficient reforms within Ukraine's military, and they were reluctant to guarantee Ukraine's security through alliance. Regardless of how sensible Zelensky's plan is, Zelensky must weaken the Russian army and align his idea with Ukraine's partners to gain maximum leverage when negotiating peace with Putin. Yet, Ukraine's battlefield situation and foreign support are deteriorating while Russia is gaining slow but significant wins over Ukrainian forces. Russia could be stopped, but Ukraine and its allies must act fast. 
Slow but Progressing 
  • Putin is on the verge of achieving his war objectives. Therefore, he will not ask for immediate negotiation or withdraw his forces. In contrast, the Ukrainian army is dangerously stretched and cannot replace frontline casualties. Ukrainian military supplies are also depleting fast, further endangering its frontline troops. 
  • Russia is exploiting dwindling Ukraine's manpower to advance, seizing and defending key positions by destroying Ukraine's air defenses, employing advanced unmanned drones, and moving troops after abating Ukraine's forces. 
  • Although Russia's strategy inflicted a high casualty on its forces, it has been able to absorb the losses. At this rate, Russia could achieve its objectives in the next year and pulverize Ukrainian forces such that it could not advance further, giving it substantial leverage in negotiations. 
Reversing the Tide 
  • To regain the advantage and increase its bargaining position, Ukraine must address several things at once. 
  • Ukraine must restrict Russia's battlefield surveillance capabilities,  ensure its artillery can protect frontline troops, dig new and stronger defense lines, and fix its recruitment and training system.  
  • Ukraine's allies could help by assisting it in developing more effective anti-drone countermeasures and enhancing its long-range strike capabilities to undermine Russian forces and increase the cost on Russia. 
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