作者/Author(s): Eugene Chausovsky 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/15/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 混合戰、中東、俄烏 


摘要：
中東地區的區域戰爭正在蠢蠢欲動，他們應該從俄烏戰爭中汲取教訓，把握先機。俄羅斯於2022年2月對烏克蘭發動全面入侵，但俄羅斯早在2014年廣場起義和吞併克里米亞時，就已經做好準備。經過多年失敗的國際調解和停火談判後，俄烏緊張局勢最終升級為戰爭。混合戰是俄烏衝突的其中一個特點，在戰局發展過程中扮演重要角色。 
  • 制裁與反制裁：
  1. 美國和歐盟對俄羅斯銀行與能源部門實施一級制裁，同時也使用二級制裁懲罰或遏止非俄羅斯個人和企業與受制裁的實體進行交易。 
  2. 美國與歐盟的二級制裁手段，迫使俄羅斯和其他國家不得不繞過制度，試圖減少制裁對其經濟的損害，此舉卻改變了全球貿易和金融體系。 
  3. 俄羅斯找到願意促成金融交易的中介國。然而，這些實體都在美國和歐盟的監視管控之下，如果他們繼續協助俄羅斯，也會遭到西方國家制裁。 
  • 俄羅斯和烏克蘭積極使用網路攻擊來打擊對方軍事、政府和關鍵基礎設施。俄羅斯也積極針對烏克蘭的支持者發動網路攻擊和假訊息戰。 
  • 代理人戰爭： 
  1. 俄羅斯透過支持反西方政權、介入地區內戰、加強與中東和非洲專制政權的合作等方式進行代理人戰爭。
  2. 中東地區近來升級的緊張局勢並未阻止俄羅斯參與該地區事務。俄羅斯甚至加強與伊朗的軍事、經濟和戰略夥伴關係。 
  3. 烏克蘭也協助其他國家，通過無人機攻擊和提供情報，削弱俄羅斯支持的國家勢力。一些非洲國家因烏克蘭在其國家內助長戰爭而選擇與其斷交。 
  • 混合戰因其多面性以及許多國家和非國家行動者的參與，很難畫出明確的戰事界線。混合戰在中東已經開打，但俄烏戰爭提醒了人們無止境延長戰爭的後果。 

Summary: 
A regional war is brewing in the Middle East. The region could draw lessons from the Russo-Ukraine War to grasp its future. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but it already prepared since 2014 with the Euromaidan revolution and the annexation of Crimea. Tensions escalated into war after years of failed international mediation and cease-fire negotiations. Hybrid warfare is a feature of the Russo-Ukraine War that played a significant role in the war's development. 
  • Sanctions and countersanctions: 
  1. The US and EU had implemented direct sanctions on Russian entities in the banking and energy sectors. Further, they also used secondary sanctions to punish or dissuade non-Russian individuals and businesses from trading with sanctioned entities. 
  2. Secondary sanctions forced Russia and other countries to circumvent the sanctions to reduce the harm to their economies. Consequently, it transformed the global trade and financial systems. 
  3. Russia found willing intermediaries to facilitate financial transactions. However, these entities were under the US and EU's radar, exposing them and their countries to Western sanctions if they continued assisting Russia. 
  • Russia and Ukraine proactively used cyberattacks to strike each other's military, government, and critical infrastructures. Further, Russia proactively used cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns against Ukraine's supporters. 
  • Proxy warfare: 
  1. Russia conducted proxy warfare by supporting anti-Western regimes, intervening in civil wars, and enhancing cooperation with authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and Africa. 
  2. Recent conflict escalation in the Middle East did not hinder Russia's involvement in the region. Russia even increased its military, economic, and strategic partnership with Iran.
  3. Ukraine also assisted rival factions in undermining Russian-backed forces by conducting drone attacks and providing intelligence. Some African countries severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine for fueling war in their countries. 
  • Hybrid warfare has no limits due to its multidimensional nature and the involvement of many state and non-state actors. Hybrid warfare already started in the Middle East, but the Russo-Ukraine War should serve as a reminder of the consequences of prolonging the war. 
 
回上層