作者/Author(s): Derek Scissors 

網站來源/Source: National Review 

日期/Date: 08/12/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、美中貿易、供應鏈 

摘要：

美國正加大力度與中國供應鏈脫鉤，一些政策制定者呼籲結束與中國的「永久正常貿易關係」。雖然降低中國的貿易地位對局勢可能有所幫助，但將中國排除在關鍵供應鏈之外，才是保護美國經濟安全和繁榮的最佳方式。

  • 在1990年代末，各國都看到中國經濟改革的潛力，允許中國加入世界貿易組織（WTO）。美國甚至立法賦予中國優惠貿易待遇。 
  • 然而，中國利用世貿成員身份鞏固其比較優勢，同時透過補貼和不公平貿易行為來取代其貿易夥伴的優勢。
  • 中國的做法違反了美國的安全利益和價值觀，促使美國採取報復行動。然而，終止中國「永久正常貿易關係」策略可能沒用，美國在不使用這項條款的情況下，對中國進口產品徵收更高的關稅。 
  • 國會可以立法保護美國免受中國市場擾亂的影響，但應優先解決如何讓美國企業重返市場的問題。 
  • 美國新的措施不應該針對美中之間貿易逆差的問題，真正的問題不在中國的出口量高，而是美國關鍵供應鏈過度依賴中國。關稅可以限制中國在供應鏈中的角色，但防止中國參與並將機會交給美國的盟友，是對抗中國供應鏈掠奪的更好方式。
Summary: 
The US is ramping up efforts to decouple its supply chain from China, with some policymakers calling to end permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) with China. Although downgrading China's trade status could be useful, displacing China out of key supply chains is the best way to protect the US's economic security and prosperity.
  • In the late 1990s, the world saw the potential of China's economic reform, allowing China's entrance into the WTO. The US even devised legislation to give China preferential trade treatment. 
  • However, China used its WTO membership to solidify its comparative advantages while denying the advantages of its trade partners through subsidies and unfair trade practices.  
  • China's practices went against the US security interests and values, prompting the US to retaliate. However, ending China's PNTR may not work because the US already charged Chinese imports with higher tariffs without using PNTR. 
  • Congress could enact bills to protect the US from market disruption caused by China, but it should first resolve how to put American firms back into the market. 
  • New US measures should not target reducing the trade deficit with China. The problem is not with high import volumes from China, but the overreliance on China in critical supply chains. Tariffs could restrict China's role in supply chains, but prevent its participation and give the opportunities to the US allies are better to combat Chinese supply chain predation. 
 
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