作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、經濟

摘要：

當俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭時，中國在敘事上持謹慎態度，不直接支持俄羅斯，以維護與其他國家的外交和經濟關係，也能避免成為西方制裁的目標。中國準確地預測到西方對烏克蘭的支持最終會減弱，但中國也因在暗中支持普丁而損失了一定程度的聲譽和經濟利益，甚至與許多歐洲國家的關係惡化。中國學者密切關注烏克蘭危機，試圖了解美中在台灣問題上發生衝突的後果，但他們尚無定論。雖然北京政府持續控制公共話語權，但中國學術界仍可在學術自由與政治正確之間謹慎探索敏感問題。而專家們對俄烏戰爭的影響也產生分歧。 

悲觀主義者 

  • 俄烏衝突初期，學者們認為此衝突對國際秩序有重大影響。習近平將這場衝突視為挑戰美國在地緣政治、技術和全球經濟領導地位的機會。 
  • 然而，中國學者在看到西方國家很快就選擇懲罰俄羅斯、支持烏克蘭後，開始擔心衝突會削弱中國在新時代中謹慎前行的能力。 
  • 部分學者認為美國在國際金融體系中仍擁有無可匹敵的優勢。因此他們建議中國在台海衝突情境下，得準備好承受美國經濟制裁的相應動作。 
  • 俄羅斯經濟和外交持續惡化，其國際影響力也隨之下降。作為中國重要戰略夥伴，專家非常擔心俄羅斯在戰後的國際地位不復往日。
 
Summary: 
When Russia invaded Ukraine, China was cautious in its narrative and refrained from direct support for Russia to preserve its diplomatic and economic relations with other nations and avoid being targeted by Western sanctions. China correctly bet that Western support for Ukraine would eventually dissipate, but China also suffered some reputational and economic costs for its obscure assistance to Putin. As a result, China's relations with many European countries had deteriorated. Chinese scholars closely monitored the Ukrainian Crisis to understand the consequences in case of a conflict with the US over Taiwan, but they are inconclusive of the possible outcomes. Although the Beijing government controls public discourse, Chinese academics could explore delicate issues, threading carefully between intellectual freedom and political loyalty. The experts gave divided opinions over the implications of the Russo-Ukraine War.  

The Pessimists 
  • When the war began, the experts argued that the war was consequential to the international order. Xi saw the conflict as an opportunity to challenge the US leadership in geopolitics, technology, and the global economy. 
  • However, Chinese scholars were worried the conflict would impair China's ability to navigate cautiously in this new age, especially after observing the West's swift response in punishing Russia and supporting Ukraine. 
  • Some observed the US still holds an unmatched superiority over the international financial system. Therefore, they recommended China defend itself against possible US economic sanctions in case of a Taiwan Strait conflict.
  • Experts are concerned about Russia's position as a strategically important partner to China after the war, especially since the deterioration of its economy and diplomacy also degraded Moscow's international influence. 
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