作者/Author(s): Hanna Dohmen, Jacob Feldgoise, and Charles Kupchan 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 07/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 半導體、科技


摘要：
 
拜登政府推出出口管制措施，以阻止中國獲得先進的半導體和晶片製造設備，保護美國技術和經濟領導地位，同時阻礙中國發展軍用人工智慧技術。然而，美國目前的措施還遠遠不夠，中國的晶片儲備量足以推動其軍事現代化，美國只能暫時保住領先地位。出口管制可能會推動中國本土半導體供應鏈的發展，加速中國技術成長。不少遵守美國出口管制措施的半導體公司因而退出中國市場，損失部分利益，同時導致西方對中國影響力減弱，加劇美中經濟脫鉤和地緣政治分裂風險。比起阻止中國發展，美國應優先加強自身創新力，在先進科技領域建立關鍵地位。

技術領先 
  • 雖然美國公司在人工智慧晶片市場處於領導地位，但過去十年的中國中在先進晶片設計、工具和製造方面飛快成長。但中國仍然追不上美國，在晶片製造設備方面高度依賴外國資源。 
  • 除了保護人工智慧技術優勢外，美國的目標是在軍事現代化和經濟增長方面維持領先地位。 
  • 拜登政府採取「小院高牆」的策略，限制中國獲取人工智慧晶片和相關製造設備，減緩中國的技術或經濟發展。 
  • 事實上，出口管制措施對阻止中國推動軍事現代化的影響力可能不大，大部分現代系統僅需要目前可用的晶片或晶片製造技術，出口管制只能在短期內削弱中國的經濟競爭力。 
  • 中國可以透過走私或使用大量現成的舊晶片來滿足軍事先進運算的需求，中國也會不擇手段實現戰略目標，避開美國的出口管制。 
Summary: 
The Biden administration introduced export control to stop China from obtaining advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. The export control aims to protect the US technological and economic leadership and impede China's progress in developing military-use AI technologies. However, the current measures are insufficient because China's chip stockpile is sufficient to drive its military modernization and may only preserve the US's lead temporarily. Further, the export control may drive China's development of an indigenous semiconductor supply chain, which hasten China's technological growth. Semiconductor companies that adhered to the US export control already suffered from income losses as they withdrew from the lucrative Chinese market, leaving the West with less leverage over China and fueling the risks of economic decoupling and geopolitical fracture. Instead of focusing on slowing down China, the US should prioritize enhancing its innovative power to establish a decisive lead in frontier technology.  
Technological Leadership 
  • Although US companies lead the AI chip market, China had gained momentum over the past decade in design, tool, and fabrication of advanced chips. However, China still lags behind the US and is highly dependent on foreign sources for chipmaking equipments. 
  • Apart from protecting its technological advantage in AI, the US aims to have a strong lead in military modernization and economic growth. 
  • The Biden adminstration implemented a "small yard, high fence" approach in impeding China's access to AI chips and chipmaking equipment to limit China's technological or economic development. 
  • However, export controls may not have significant implication in stopping China's military modernization because most current modern systems require only currently available chips or chipmaking techniques. At most, the export control will only blunt China's economic competitiveness for a short time. 
  • China could satisfy its need for military advanced computing by smuggling chips or using larger amounts of readily available older chips. Further, China would use any means to achieve its strategic objectives, rendering the US export control ineffective. 
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