作者/Author(s): Eric Ciaramella 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦 


摘要：
額外的美國軍事援助和人力僅能阻止烏克蘭的傷亡程度，但無法結束戰爭。烏克蘭及其合作夥伴需要一項長期、連貫的戰略來阻止戰爭，增強烏克蘭的嚇阻能力，並簽署安全協議。西方國家需要阻止俄羅斯贏得後續戰爭，對俄羅斯實施有意義的嚇阻懲罰，顯示保衛烏克蘭的決心。 

長遠規劃 
  • 2022 年中俄羅斯進攻失敗後，烏克蘭和美國開始規劃長期防禦戰略。西方轉讓了許多武器，烏克蘭也學會了使用他們獲得的新武器。 
  • 俄羅斯是一支強大的軍事力量，美國制定了確保烏克蘭能夠長期自衛的戰略。然而計劃還未實現，戰爭就進入了新階段，烏克蘭人奪回了更多領土，但他們難以突破俄羅斯的堅固陣地。與此同時，俄羅斯過渡到戰時經濟，並想方設法減輕西方制裁的影響。 
  • 雖然烏克蘭獲得的軍事援助可以讓它再堅持一年，而且談判可能會讓烏克蘭被迫面對不公平的犧牲，但西方和烏克蘭必須回到確保長期和平的談判桌上。 
國防問題  
  • 烏克蘭的武裝應與明確的軍事戰略掛鉤：一支可以實施複雜的聯合武裝進攻以奪回更多領土的部隊，或者一支可以長期保護其現有土地和人民的防禦部隊。 
  • 進攻型部隊對烏克蘭人極具吸引力，因為它能給人民帶來道德感，並展示清晰的勝利前景。然而，它並不務實，需要進行嚴格的軍事訓練才能擊敗俄羅斯軍隊，並需要更多的投資來維持其軍事力量。
  • 一支以防禦和嚇阻為重點的部隊CP值更高。有了適當的能力，烏克蘭就可以減輕和對抗俄羅斯在不同領域的優勢。烏克蘭可以發展遠程打擊能力，削弱俄羅斯的恢復能力，提高俄羅斯未來攻擊的成本，並迫使他們減少轟炸行動。 
 
Summary: 
Additional US military aid and manpower will only stop Ukraine from losing further without ending the war. Ukraine and its partners need a long-term and coherent strategy to stop the war, enhance Ukraine's deterrence capabilities, and sign security agreements with Ukraine. The West also needs to prevent Russia from winning future wars, inflict meaningful punishment on Russia, and show commitment to defending Ukraine. 

Planning for the Long Run 
  • Ukraine and the US began to plan a long-term defense strategy when Russia's offensive failed in mid-2022. The West transferred many weapons and Ukraine learned to use the new weaponries they obtained. 
  • Since Russia is still a formidable military force, the US strategizes to ensure Ukraine can defend itself in the long run. However, before the plan could materialize, the war took on a new phase. Although Ukrainians reclaimed more territories, they struggled to break through Russian tough positions. Meanwhile, Russia transitioned into a wartime economy and found ways to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. 
  • Although Ukraine obtained military aid that would let it last for another year, the West and Ukraine must return to the drawing board which will ensure long-term peace, even if it results in unfair tradeoffs for Ukraine. 
Defense Matters 
  • Arming Ukraine should be tied to a clear military strategy: a force that could execute complex combined-arms offensives that would reclaim more territories or a defense that could protect its current land and people for a long time. 
  • An offensive force is attractive to Ukrainians because it moralizes the people and presents a clear view of victory. However, it is not pragmatic because it necessitates vigorous military training to defeat Russian forces and more investments to sustain its military. 
  • A force focusing on defense and deterrence would be more affordable. With suitable capabilities, Ukraine could mitigate and counter Russia's advantages in different domains. Ukraine could develop long-range strike capabilities to reduce Russia's force regeneration ability, raise the costs for future Russian attacks, and force Russia to drive down its bombardment campaigns. 
 
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