作者/Author(s): Emily Kilcrease 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/07/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁
 

美元霸權 

  • 美元長期佔有霸權地位，讓美國對中國仍擁有極大金融影響力。中國的大部分海外資產都以美元計價，而中國自身的金融限制也侷限了人民幣跨境交易的能力。 
  • 不過制裁中國銀行一舉可能引發全球金融崩潰，造成美元市場混亂，並激起與中國經濟聯繫緊密的其他經濟體抗議。 
時機與機遇 
  • 美國應該將制裁視為整體戰略的一部分，利用美國國家權力的各種工具來警告中國好戰的代價。 
  • 美國應該繼續讓中國參與全球金融體系，以保持本身影響力，同時建立可信的制裁威脅制度。 
  • 美國也要與其他先進經濟體協調制裁政策，提供積極誘因確保發展中國家的支持。 
守護家園 
  • 美中衝突將導致經濟高昂成本，美國必須透過降低中國供應鏈的風險，更緊密地與可信合作夥伴進行經濟整合，增強經濟韌性。 
  • 美國還需要為美中濟戰組建內閣，以完善制裁規劃，加強協調盟友。
  • 制裁可能有助於遏制美中的戰爭，但美國必須展示制裁實施的可信度和決心，才能使其成為一個有意義的嚇阻手段。 

Dollar Hegemony 
  • The US still has great financial leverage over China due to the US dollar's hegemonic status. Further, most Chinese foreign assets were denominated in US dollars, and China's own financial restrictions limit the ability of renminbi cross-border transactions. 
  • However, financial sanctions on Chinese banks could trigger a global financial meltdown, cause chaos in the US dollar markets, and provoke protests from other economies with strong economic ties with China. 
Time and Chance 
  • Sanctions should be deployed in a broader strategy of integrated that includes all instruments of the US national power to warn China about the costs of its belligerence.  
  • The US should continue keeping China in the global financial system to retain its leverage while building the credibility of the threat to impose sanctions. 
  • The US also should coordinate its sanction policies with other advanced economies and secure support from developing countries by offering positive inducements. 
Guarding the Home Front 
  • Since a conflict with China would impose high economic costs on the US, the US must foster economic resilience by de-risking its supply chains from China and closer economic integration with close and trusted partners. 
  • The US also needs to prepare a war cabinet for economic warfare to smoothen sanctions planning and coordination with allies. 
  • Sanctions could help to deter war with China, but the US must show credibility and resolve in sanctions imposition for it to be a meaningful deterrent. 
 
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