作者/Author(s): Eugene Chausovsky 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 能源、經濟 


摘要：
在近期全球衝突或地緣政治關鍵區域中，能源已變成重要元素。
  • 2022 年以來，俄烏戰爭迫使歐洲國家實現能源供應多樣化。另一方面，俄羅斯也將其出口轉向不參與西方制裁的國家。在俄烏戰爭中，雙方互相打擊對方的能源基礎設施，意圖破壞對方的戰爭行動，損害經濟收益。隨著西方對烏克蘭支持的力度減少，烏克蘭可能會深入攻擊俄羅斯境內的能源基礎設施，向莫斯科施壓。 
  • 以色列與哈馬斯的衝突導致胡塞武裝也會襲擊紅海的船隻，這對全球能源出口至關重要。這些襲擊對中東和世界能源生產國意義重大，因為它們將改變能源運輸方向，提高全球能源價格，引發全球經濟震盪。 
  • 南海是西太平洋另一個關鍵的能源戰略要地，該地區的中美緊張局勢迫使菲律賓要求華盛頓提供南海能源勘探的經濟和安全支援。台灣主要依靠進口能源供應，面對中國干擾的恢復彈性不高。雖然北京正試圖避免全面衝突，但它可能通過灰色地帶策略或對台灣關鍵能源供應商施加外交壓力。 
  • 然而，能源也使波斯灣國家得以調解俄烏戰爭和以色列-哈馬斯衝突。中國成功斡旋伊朗和沙烏地阿拉伯等主要能源供應國間的外交正常化。 
  • 隨著能源越來越容易受到衝突影響，它也可能成為促進和平的外交工具。
Summary: 
Energy has become an important element in recent global conflicts or possible geopolitical hotspots. 
  • The Russia-Ukraine war since 2022 forced European countries to diversify their energy supplies from Russia. On the other hand, Russia shifted its exports to countries that do not support Western sanctions. In the main conflict, Russia and Ukraine struck each other's energy infrastructures, aiming to disrupt war operations and undermine economic gains. As the West is more reluctant to support Ukraine, Ukraine may attack energy infrastructure deep inside Russia to pressure Moscow further. 
  • The Israel-Hamas conflict inadvertently led to Houthi attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea, which is critical for energy exports. The attacks are significant to energy producers in the Middle East and the world because they would redirect energy transports, increase global energy prices, and send economic shockwaves worldwide. 
  • The South China Sea is another crucial energy chokepoint in the Western Pacific. The US-China tensions in the region forced the Philippines to request economic and security support from Washington for energy exploration in the South China Sea. Taiwan, which relies mainly on energy imports for consumption, is highly vulnerable to disruption by China. Although Beijing is avoiding an all-out conflict, it may coerce Taiwan through gray-zone tactics or diplomatic pressure on Taiwan's key energy suppliers. 
  • However, energy also allowed Persian Gulf countries to mediate in the Russo-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. China also mediated the diplomatic normalization between its main energy suppliers, Iran and Saudi Arabia. 
  • As energy becomes more vulnerable to conflicts, it may also serve as a diplomatic instrument for peace. 
 
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