作者/Author(s): Michael A. Cohen, Christopher Preble, and Monica Duffy Toft 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: November 1, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: War on Terror, Strategy, Conflict Limitation 

摘要：

哈馬斯於10月7日對平民的暴行在某種程度上類似於基地組織於9月11日對美國的襲擊。雖然以色列對加沙的報復有正當理由，但以色列應該從美國反恐戰爭之後在阿富汗的經歷中汲取更有價值的教訓。畢竟美國在反恐戰爭中受困了將近二十年。 

  • 以色列應該專注於打擊哈馬斯，限制哈瑪斯在加沙的行動，避免將衝突擴大到伊朗或黎巴嫩的真主黨，以避免無止盡的戰爭。當年美國迅速推翻了塔利班政府，剿滅基地組織，但卻將行動擴大到幾乎沒有戰略意義的伊拉克。伊拉克行動在美國和其盟友之間製造了裂縫，削弱了美國重建阿富汗的努力，使美國在中東陷入困境。 
  • 與可靠的盟友合作來應對對加沙的長期軍事占領。雖然美國在阿富汗的存在是出於良好意圖，也受到當地人民的歡迎，但這種做法並未促進和平，甚至在行動後馬上遭到恐怖襲擊或叛亂。以色列的軍事實力很強大，但它對該地區的文化或戰術了解不足，無法確保事後的長期穩定。以色列必須與可靠的盟友或合作夥伴合作，以更好地了解加沙現況。 
  • 了解敵人（哈馬斯）和潛在合作夥伴（巴勒斯坦當局）。美國曾經同時與塔利班政府和蓋達組織作戰，雖然塔利班同樣仇視蓋達，但這並不妨礙他們對美國的作戰行動。塔利班沒多久就向美國投降了，而蓋達組織成員則一直戰鬥到最後。最初歡迎美國的阿富汗人後來轉向反對美國，並在美國繼續追捕前塔利班領袖後，助長了塔利班的復甦叛亂。以色列應該避免將巴勒斯坦當局（PA）變成敵人，尤其是當PA支持兩國解決方案並有潛力協助以色列處理戰爭後的局勢。然而，以色列目前卻反其道而行之，不分青紅皂白地對加沙的任何巴勒斯坦人進行攻擊或不採取行動。 
  • 以色列必須立即停止這種暴力行為，並考慮採取建立信任措施。正如美國接受塔利班在確保阿富汗和平方面的關鍵作用一樣，以色列可能得與魔鬼打交道，以結束衝突局面，促進加沙的穩定。这意味着以色列應該理解那些哈馬斯支持者對以色列不滿的情緒，並與巴勒斯坦當局合作，以化解分歧。 
Summary：
Hamas' October 7 atrocities on civilians resemble al-Qaeda's September 11 attack on the US in some manner. While Israel has legitimate reasons for its retaliation in Gaza, Israel should scrutinize more valuable lessons from what happened after the US's war on terror in Afghanistan that trapped Washington in the Middle East for almost two decades. 
  • Israel should focus on Hamas only and limit its operations in Gaza without expanding its conflict to Iran or Hezbollah in Lebanon to avoid an endless war. The US quickly tore down the Taliban government and tattered al-Qaeda but expanded its operation to invade Iraq, which had little strategic sense. The Iraq operation drove a wedge between the US and its allies and undermined the US's effort to reconstruct Afghanistan, which bogged the US down in the Middle East. 
  • Work with reliable allies to handle a long-term military occupation in Gaza. Although the US presence in Afghanistan is well-intentioned and welcomed by the locals, it did not foster peace and often led to subsequent terrorist attacks or rebellions. Israel's military capability is undoubted, but it does not have a sufficient cultural or tactical understanding of the region to ensure postconflict stability. Israel must work with reliable allies or partners to gain a better view of governing Gaza. 
  • Know thy enemies (Hamas) and potential partners (the Palestinian Authority). The US fought both the Taliban government and al-Qaeda, although the former shared enmity with the US toward the latter. The Taliban surrendered quickly to the US, unlike al-Qaeda members who fought to the end. Afghans who welcomed the US initially turned against the US and fueled resurgent Taliban insurgency after the US continued to hunt down former Taliban leaders. Israel should avoid turning the Palestinian Authority (PA) into its enemy, especially when the PA favors the two-state solution and has the potential to assist Israel in handling the aftermath of the war. However, Israel is currently doing the opposite with indiscriminate attacks or inactions against any Palestinians in Gaza. 
  • Israel must stop its violence in the West Bank immediately and consider confidence-building measures. Just as the US accepted the Taliban's crucial role in ensuring peace in Afghanistan, Israel may have to deal with the devil to end the conflict and foster stability in Gaza. It means Israel should understand the grievances that drive support for Hamas and work with the PA to mitigate differences.  
回上層