War on the Rocks: 避險：重新評估中國對台灣的投射能力 (Part 1)

在二戰中，「希金斯登陸艇」允許美軍進行兩棲登陸，這對盟軍的勝利具有決定性意義。這是一個成功的軍民夥伴關係的例子，中國試圖效仿此種作法來入侵台灣。中國的軍民夥伴關係也促進了後勤，可以縮短入侵時間。這部分總結了中國可能的入侵模式、反入侵方式以及中國工業基礎的重要性。 
 

中國的入侵模式： 

• 像最近的軍事演習一樣，發動海上封鎖，切斷台灣的能源和供應渠道，以扼殺台灣。 
• 開展海上和空中封鎖行動，以阻止外國干預並獲得區域優勢。 
• 通過聯合空中和兩棲攻擊控制台灣周圍具有重要軍事意義的島嶼，以加強封鎖和後續行動。 
• 然而，中國必須對台灣主要島嶼發動兩棲攻擊以確保其成功。 

• 美國可能首先訴諸外交，以降低對台灣的封鎖，同時鞏固其同盟關係。 
• 只有當台灣或美軍受到直接攻擊時，美國才會進行軍事干預。
• 反入侵部隊將專注於入侵中隊和後勤支援。 
• 但是，中國和聯軍都將遭受重大損失。解放軍可以在台灣站穩腳跟，但不能吞併全島。
• 外國干預可以以高昂的代價否定中國的目標，但中國正在改善其軍事後勤基礎以提高其成功率。 

• 中國可能會增強其入侵能力，尤其是在兩棲運輸方面。 
• 先前對中國兩棲部隊的分析，否定了中國大規模生產並可以整合到軍隊中的民用船隻的重要性。 
• 中國可以以相當大的工業能力快速生產關鍵的兩棲運輸工具，以滿足短程作戰的需要。 
• 中國認識到戰爭期間的潛在損失，但兩棲攻擊並不是唯一的方法。 

 In WWII, the Higgins boats allowed the US forces to conduct amphibious landings, which was decisive for allied victory. It is an instance of a successful civil-military partnership that China seeks to emulate for invading Taiwan. China’s civil-military partnership also facilitated logistics, which can shorten the invasion time. This part summarizes China’s possible pattern of invasion, counter-invasion ways, and the importance of China’s industrial base. 
 

China’s Pattern of Invasion 

• Launch a maritime blockade like the recent military drills to cut off Taiwan’s access to energy and supplies to choke Taiwan. 
• Conduct sea- and air- denial operations to stop foreign intervention and gain zonal superiority.  
• Control militarily significant islands around Taiwan with joint air and amphibious attacks to reinforce the blockade and subsequent operations. 
• However, China must launch amphibious assaults on Taiwan’s main island to secure its success. 

• The US may resort to diplomacy first to de-escalate Taiwan’s blockade while cementing its alliance.  
• The US will only intervene militarily if Taiwan or US forces are attacked directly. 
• Counter-invasion forces will focus on the invasion squadron and logistical support. 
• However, both China and coalition forces will suffer heavy losses. PLA can gain meager footholds in Taiwan but cannot annex the whole island. 
• Foreign intervention can deny China’s aims at a high cost, but China is improving its military logistical base to increase its success rate. 

• China may increase its invasion capabilities, especially in amphibious transportation. 
• Previous analysis of China’s amphibious forces discredited the importance of civilian ships, which China mass produced and could be integrated into the military. 
• China can produce critical amphibious transports at a fast pace with its sizeable industrial capacity to suffice the need for short-range operations. 
• China recognizes the potential loss during the war, but amphibious assault is not the only approach.