FA: 經濟戰的侷限性 (Part 2)

作者/Author(s): Peter Harrell 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/27/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Economic, Sanction

  • 制裁會阻礙俄羅斯的經濟增長和產業,但不會改變普京的戰略考量。這個獨裁政權曾經忍受過巨大的經濟痛苦。因此,西方國家的制裁應該僅集中在限制普丁的作戰能力,並迫使普丁認識到制裁帶來的可能的國內威脅。 
  • G7應加倍努力,將俄羅斯被凍結的資產和其他資源轉用於援助烏克蘭,特別是在對烏克蘭國防的持續援助有限制的情況下。 
  • 西方應該用他們對俄羅斯商品徵收的關稅來資助烏克蘭的武器採購和提供財政支援
  • 雖然制裁不會在短期內改變普丁的野心,但解除制裁的前景可以成為未來與俄羅斯談判的籌碼 
  • 制裁對俄羅斯的限制表明,制裁是一個有用的懲罰工具,但不能在短期內改變對方的決策 
  • 西方不斷提供的軍事援助和烏克蘭的復原力已經成功阻礙了俄羅斯。因此,軍事威懾比經濟脅迫更有助於威懾其他潛在對手 
  • 美國必須加強網路進攻的能力,尤其是對台灣,這是一個更好的威懾工具 
  • 儘管美國收集並分享了關於俄羅斯計劃的重要情報,但他們在報復俄羅斯的虛假訊息戰術方面卻不那麼有效。因此,美國必須在資訊工具方面進行更多的投資,以便在世界範圍內推廣其敘述。 
Russia endures. 
  • The sanctions will impede Russia's economic growth and industries but will not change Putin's strategic calculus. Authoritarian regimes have survived immense economic pain. Therefore, Western sanctions should focus only on limiting Putin's warfighting ability and force him to recognize the potential domestic threats that arise from the sanctions. 
  • The G-7 should double down on efforts to redirect Russia's frozen assets and other resources to assist Ukraine, especially when there is a limit on continuous aid for Ukraine's defense. 
  • The West should fund weapons procurement and provide financial support for Ukraine with the tariff they impose on Russian goods. 
  • Although sanctions will not change Putin's ambitions in the short term, the prospect of lifting sanctions can be a bargaining chip for negotiating with Russia in the future. 
  • The limitation of sanctions on Russia signals that sanctions are a useful supporting punitive instrument but will not alter decision-making in the short term. 
  • The West's continuous supply of military aid and Ukrainian's resilience had hindered Russia successfully. Therefore, military deterrence is more useful to deter other potential adversaries than economic coercion. 
  • The US must boost cyber-offense capability, especially for Taiwan, which is a better deterrent. 
  • Although the US gathered and shared vital intelligence on Russia's plan, they had been less effective in retaliating against Russia's disinformation tactics. Therefore, the US must invest more in information tools to promote its narratives worldwide.