作者:Craig Singleton
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:May 17, 2023
 

儘管美國提出請求，中國拒絕與美國溝通，並與其他國家的高層代表團進行對話。除非拜登政府改變對中國的看法，否則華盛頓永遠不會有與北京政府通信的機會。

• 美國堅持與中國「競合共存」的口號，但中國的目標是統治全球。美國必須取代其一廂情願的話語，並以對等為目標：爭奪主導權。
• 拜登政府的對中政策存在矛盾，官僚機構內部的政策也存在差異，這會誤導決策者。
• 在台灣問題上，拜登重申了美國保衛台灣的承諾，但白宮正在尋求與中國競爭的策略。北京認為這是華盛頓企圖單方面改變台灣海峽現狀的努力，因此加強了其在台海周圍的軍事行動。
• 儘管中國藐視國際法並拒絕道歉，國務院仍阻止美國機構得罪北京，避免關係進一步惡化。
• 美國請求在不優先改變北京行為的情況下與中國溝通，認為和平的意圖符合雙方利益。然而，習近平拒絕了拜登的懇求並將其武器化，因為他認為北京在所有方面都是正確的。
• 拜登不一致的中國策略意味著政府誤判了習近平的地緣政治目標，並試圖謹慎接近中國。然而，中國的被動束縛了美國的決策者，使北京變得更加大膽。
• 美國應倡導平等的策略，表現出其遏制中國的決心，並只有在中國做到同等回應時才進行合作。
• 習近平很清楚，與美國接觸會延長目前的自由主義世界秩序，他認為自己很快就會進行國際秩序之爭。因此，習近平正在發起一場影響力消耗戰，把盡可能多的國家拉入其軌道，並將美國排除在外，以確保中國獲勝。
• 習近平的不干涉主義思想和尊重每個國家的價值觀，在上海合作組織中得到了專制政府的支持，並可能取代聯合國。
• 習近平只會參與對北京利益至關重要的雙邊對話，拒絕進行對華盛頓重要的交流。
• 如果拜登希望採取共存而非互惠的政策，北京將繼續迴避美國。因此，美國必須克制，不與中國交談，迫使習近平坐到談判桌上。

China refused to communicate with the US despite pleas from the latter and held dialogues with top delegations from other countries. Unless the Biden administration changes its perceptions of China, Washington will never have the chance to correspond with the Beijing Government.

• The US upheld the slogan "competing to coexist" with China, but China aims for global domination. The US must replace its wishful discourse and aim for reciprocity: competing for dominance.
• The Biden administration has contradictory China policies that differ among the bureaucracy, confusing policymakers.
• Regarding Taiwan, Biden reiterated the US commitment to defend the island, but the White House seeks to compete with China. Beijing perceives it as Washington's attempt to change the Taiwan Strait's status quo unilaterally, thus increasing its military presence around the island.
• The State Department even stopped US agencies from offending Beijing to prevent the relationship from spiraling downwards, although China defied international law and refused to apologize.
• The US plead to communicate with China without first changing Beijing's behavior, believing peaceful intentions are of mutual interest. However, Xi refuses and weaponizes Biden's plea as he thinks Beijing is right on all accounts.
• Biden's incoherent China strategy means the administration misdiagnosed Xi's geopolitical aims and tried to approach China cautiously. However, Chinese passivity binds the US decision-makers and makes Beijing more audacious.
• The US should advocate a strategy of reciprocity, show its resolute in containing China and only cooperate if China does the same.
• Xi is clear that engaging the US will extend the current liberal world order and assumes it can decide the battle for international order soon. Therefore, Xi is playing a war of influence attrition by pulling as many countries as possible into its orbit and excluding the US to ensure China prevails.
• Xi's non-interventionist ideology and respect for each country's values, upheld in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, garnered support from authoritarian governments and may replace the UN.
• Xi will only engage in bilateral dialogues crucial to Beijing's interests and refuse any exchanges important to Washington.
• If Biden hopes for a policy of coexistence than reciprocity, Beijing will continue to avoid the US. Therefore, the US must restrain from talking with China to force Xi to the negotiating table.