The Economist: 中國的力量即將達到頂峰?

摘要:
自1978年起,中國經濟飛速增長,數百萬人民擺脫貧困,成為經濟強國。習近平希望利用中國的經濟實力重塑國際秩序,但中國的經濟已趨近成熟和巔峰。中國最多只能趕上美國的經濟實力,但無法超越它。

中國的巔峰

  • Brands and Beckleys 兩位學者提出的「中國顛峰論」認為,當中國獲得足夠的實力來破壞現有的國際秩序,但開始失去時間優勢時,中國將會成為一個威脅。
  • 當前中國面對的一些障礙:
    • 中國的人口已經達到頂峰,還被印度超越。北京鼓勵新生兒的政策尚未成功。
    • 中國勞動者的產出不會上升,因為更多的資源將被投入到社會福利。
    • 習近平的專制政策和地緣政治的緊張局勢(技術競爭)降低了中國的創新能力。
  • 投資公司預測,中國的GDP將在2026年超過美國,並在2050年擴大50%;目前的預測顯示,中國將在2035年超越美國,增長率大約為15%。一些研究公司甚至認為,中國的經濟高峰在2025年最多只有美國規模的90%,不會超過美國。

中國能否解決其困境

  • 習近平可能需要專注提高公民的生活水準,以促進生產力的增長,並從國有銀行和企業適當撥一部分資本,以減少浪費,並緩和目前的地緣政治緊張局勢,增加商業信心。然而,習近平並沒有顯示出採取經濟和政治自由化的跡象。
  • 隨著中國經濟的疲軟,其可能會更具侵略性。習近平煽動危險的民族主義來鞏固自己的統治地位,增加軍事開支來挑戰美國的軍事實力。
  • 中國最有可能克制自己的狂妄自大,並自我抵制入侵台灣的行為。然而,中國和美國能否避免誤解對方的意圖以防止衝突至關重要。
Summary:
China has experienced strong economic growth since 1978, which allowed it to elevate millions of citizens from poverty and become an economic powerhouse. Xi Jinping hopes to use Chinese economic might to reshape the international order, but China's economy is maturing and peaking. At most, China can only match US economic power but not overtake it.

Peak China

  • Brands and Beckleys' "Peak China" theory states that China will be threatening when it gains enough power to disrupt the current international order but starting to lose confidence that time is on its side.
  • China currently has a few hindrances:
    • China's population has peaked and been overtaken by India. Beijing's attempt to encourage new births has yet to succeed.
    • China's output per worker will not rise because more resources will be directed to social welfare.
    • Xi's autocratic policies and geopolitical tensions (technology competition) reduce China's innovative capability.
  • Investment firms predicted China's GDP will overtake the US in 2026 and expand by 50% by 2050; current projection shows China will overtake the US in 2035 and grow at 15%. Some research firms even argued that the Chinese economy peak at most 90% of US size in 2025 and will not surpass the US.

Can China solve its predicament?

  • Xi may focus on improving the citizens' living standards to boost productivity growth, appropriate capital from state-owned banks and enterprises to reduce wastage, and easing current geopolitical tensions to increase business confidence. However, Xi does not show signs of adopting economic and political liberalization.
  • China may be more aggressive as its economy weakens. Xi incited dangerous nationalism to consolidate his rule and increased military spending to challenge US's military power.
  • China will most likely restrain itself from hubris and resist invading Taiwan. However, it is crucial whether China and the US can avoid misinterpreting each other's intentions to prevent conflict.