FP: China is a Loan Shark No Legs Left to Break


作者:Christina Lu
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:May 9, 2023


摘要:
中國通過「一帶一路」向發展中國家提供大量貸款,超過世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織,成為全球最大的單一債權國。中國希望借款國在地緣政治問題上與中國利益保持一致,同時貸款能夠產生一定的利息回報。然而,債務國很難償還中國和其他債權人的債務,有些國家甚至已經宣告破產。

一般來說,債務國可以向巴黎俱樂部尋求債務重組或減免。然而,中國拒絕參與該聯盟,並且常常對國際債務重組規範表示懷疑。 雖然中國是目前最大的債權國,但他還是認為多邊國家必須共享損失與債務,因此很少採用多邊型態關係,這與全球債務重組的傳統程序相矛盾。雖然中國有雙邊債務重組的經驗,但是它沒有與其他債權人合作的經驗,而且不同的中國金融機構各自持有的債務比例也契約也不同。這讓中國內部也很難進行債務重組談判。然而,國內和經濟壓力迫使中國改變立場。中國可能不再要求多邊貸款人承擔損失。

在1980年代,拉丁美洲面對沉重的債務負擔,最終造成了數十年的經濟增長消失,國內通貨膨脹嚴重,人民陷入貧困。中國應該要與其他國家合作,阻止債務國危機惡化甚至瀕臨破產危機。

Summary:

China surpassed the World Bank and the IMF as the world's largest single creditor by lending heavily to developing countries through the BRI. Beijing hopes the borrowing countries would align themselves with Beijing's interests on geopolitical issues and the loans will generate good interest returns. However, debtor countries struggled to repay their debts to the Chinese and other creditors, and some countries were bankrupt.

Generally, debtor nations can seek help from the Paris Club for debt restructuring or relief. However, China refuses to be part of the coalition and often doubts the norms for international debt restructuring practices. China insisted that multilateral countries must share the burden of losses, despite it being the largest creditor, contradicting the traditional process of global debt restructuring. Although China has experience in bilateral debt rescheduling, it does not have experience working with other creditors, and different Chinese financial institutions hold the debts.

It makes debt renegotiation challenging even at the domestic level. Yet, domestic and economic pressures forced China to make a U-turn. China may stop asking multilateral lenders to take losses. In the 1980s, due to heavy debt burdens, Latin America lost decades of economic growth, and it also caused hyperinflation that drove people into poverty. China must work with the rest to stop the debt crises from exacerbating to prevent lending countries from an imminent demise.