FA: Xi Jinping Says He is Preparing China for War


作者:John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger
來源:Foreign Affairs
日期:Mar 29, 2023

摘要:
習近平已經顯示出他正在為中國準備戰爭的跡象。雖然衝突還不確定，但世界不能忽視習近平的言論。
 
  • 在「兩會」期間，中共中央軍委發表了一篇文章，呼籲加快國防現代化，加強軍民融合，並且自誇在過去擊敗由美國裝備的國民黨和韓戰中戰勝美國的強大實力。
  • 2022年12月，北京頒布了一項新法，使解放軍在戰時更容易動員其預備役力量和組織軍隊補充系統。
  • 2023年2月，全國人大通過一項法案，賦予中央軍委權力懲罰任何反對台灣收復、宣稱對所佔領的領土享有合法權威或利用此類觀點拉攏民心的個人。
  • 自2022年12月以來，中國政府已在主要城市開設了國防動員辦公室，並開始建設或升級防空洞和戰時緊急醫院。一些城市還封鎖了海外IP地址，以防止國外人士監控中國的戰爭準備。
  • 這次 "兩會 "證實了北京戰略的轉變。中國人民政治協商會議討論了一項建議，將親台獨分子列入黑名單，並表示如果他們拒不變節，可以暗殺他們。
  • 即將卸任的李克強總理還宣布，中國的軍事預算比去年增加了7.2％，超過了所有太平洋地區的美國盟友的支出。.
  • 習近平就中國的軍事擴張發表了重要演講：
    • 習近平對中國的前景持悲觀態度，但他相信只要遵循他的指導，就能克服新的挑戰。
    • 習近平指責美國正在遏制和打壓中國。儘管拜登致力於減緩美中關係的惡化，但習近平仍在為衝突做準備。
    • 習近平還強調中國必須實現自給自足，減少對技術、食品和加工品的外依賴。
    • 習近平強調中國必須關注創新，以強化國防並組織一個能夠在戰時動員後備軍人的系統。
    • 習近平堅定認為「祖國統一」對他的偉大復興夢至關重要。
  • 全世界必須認真對待習近平的言論，因為他在反腐和零確診政策方面一言九鼎。習近平最近的講話表明他有意使用武力接管台灣。然而，習近平是否會將美中緊張關係升級到不可控制的程度，尚不得而知。
summary:

Xi Jinping has shown indicators that he is preparing China for war. Although a conflict is still uncertain, the world cannot ignore Xi's words.

  • During the "two-sessions," the Central Military Commission of the CCP published an essay calling for accelerating national defense modernization and intensifying Military-Civil Fusion. It even lightly boasted its might and previous success in defeating US-armed Kuomintang and the US in the Korean War.
  • In December 2022, Beijing enacted a new law that enables the PLA to easily mobilize its reserve forces and organize a system for replenishing combat troops during a war.
  • In February 2023, the National People's Congress adopted a decree giving the Central Military Commission the power to punish any individual who opposes a Taiwan takeover, claims legal authority over occupied territory, or uses it to garner public support for its decisions.
  • Since December 2022, the Chinese government has opened National Defense Mobilization offices in major Chinese cities and started constructing or upgrading air-raid shelters and wartime emergency hospitals. Some cities also blocked overseas IP addresses from accessing government websites, possibly to hinder attempts to track China's preparation for war.
  • The "two-sessions" meeting confirms a shift in Beijing's strategy. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference discussed a proposal to blacklist pro-Taiwanese independence individuals and assassinate them if they remained stubborn.
  • Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang also announced an increase of 7.2% from last year in the military budget, which exceeds the spending of all US treaty allies in the Pacific.
  • Xi gave significant speeches on China's military expansion.
    • Xi views China pessimistically and will face new struggles, which can be overcome by following his guidance.
    • Xi blamed the US is containing and suppressing China. Although Biden is committed to slowing down US-China from deteriorating, Xi is preparing for a confrontation.
    • Xi also stressed Chinese self-sufficiency, reducing foreign reliance on technology, food, and manufactured goods.
    • Xi emphasized China must focus on its innovation efforts to enhance national defense and organize a system that can mobilize reservists during wartime.
    • Xi asserted "the unification of motherland" is crucial for his great rejuvenation campaign.
  • The world must take Xi's words seriously as he sticks to his words in anti-corruption and zero-COVID policy. Xi's recent speeches indicated the willingness to use force to take over Taiwan. However, it is yet to know whether Xi will escalate US-China tensions to an uncontrollable level.
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