FP: Why China Should Worry About 


作者:Derek Grossman
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:Apr 12, 2023

摘要:
澳英美三邊安全夥伴關係（AUKUS）允許澳洲從美國採購核動力潛艇，並最終與美國和英國聯合開發其核動力潛艇。AUKUS標誌著通過現代化和提高互操作性深化安全合作的開始，使其比任何其他區域安全安排更有意義。AUKUS的主要目的是嚇阻中國，或在發生衝突時能夠有效擊敗中國。雖然中國對該協議提出了抗議，但該地區其他國家總體上對該協議持肯定態度，或者沒有表現出任何反對意見。這表明印太地區的國家對中國的軍事增長和野心持警惕態度，而AUKUS符合它們在和平時期嚇阻方面的利益。
 

支持（或不反對）AUKUS的原因

像是台灣、日本和菲律賓等國家，涉及與中國的領土爭端，或對中國的軍事活動感到擔憂。

大多數國家認為，AUKUS將穩定該地區，或對中國的影響起到制衡作用。

韓國面對的是一個擁有核武器的北韓，為了威懾對方和維持國家威望，韓國可能會追求核武器，或者一個類似於AUKUS的協議。

然而，大多數國家（越南、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞和柬埔寨）對該地區的核擴散表示擔憂。

Summary:
The Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security agreement allows Australia to procure nuclear-powered submarines from the US and eventually develop its nuclear-powered submarine jointly with the US and UK. The AUKUS marks the start of deepening security cooperation through modernization and interoperability enhancement, making it more significant than any other regional security arrangement. The main aim of AUKUS is to deter China or defeat China if a conflict breaks out. Although China protested the agreement, other countries in the region have generally been positive about it or did not show any opposition. It shows that countries in the Indo-Pacific region are wary of China's military growth and ambitions, and AUKUS fits their interest in peacetime deterrence.
 

The reasons for supporting (or not opposing) AUKUS.

  • Some countries, notably Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines, were involved in territorial disputes with China or were concerned by Chinese military activity.
  • Most countries believe that AUKUS will stabilize the region or act as a counterweight against Chinese influence.
  • South Korea faces a nuclear-armed North Korea and may pursue nuclear weapons, or an AUKUS-styled agreement, for deterrence and national prestige.
  • However, most countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia) were concerned about nuclear proliferation in the area.
 
 
 
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