CNN: 俄烏危機讓美國更容易在西太平洋地區孤立中國 

 

作者/Author(s): Brad Lendon 

原文來源/Source: CNN 

日期/Date: 03/06/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Alliance, Strategy, Foreign Policy, Defense 

摘要：

為甚麼中國持續地被孤立？ 

  • 中國不斷增加、現代化和改進解放軍，威脅到其周邊鄰國。 
  • 中共從未控制過台灣，但卻不斷向行政當局施壓，要求其與大陸統一。同時，中共也保留其強制統一台灣的選擇。 
  • 壓垮美國的最後一根稻草是中國模糊地支持普丁入侵烏克蘭，這促使日本、韓國和菲律賓向美國靠攏，因為他們擔心烏克蘭局勢會在東亞重演。 
面對中國的威脅 
  • 日本 
  1. 日本一直強調和平的台海對其安全至關重要，但最近形勢變得更加緊張。 
  2. 日本修改了有關自衛隊的憲法，並向美國採購遠程武器，打擊日本領土以外的敵人。
  • 南韓 
  1. 南韓跟日本一樣，也想要有一個和平的台海來保證其繁榮與安全。 
  2. 南韓也評估，如果南韓捲進美中衝突下的台灣問題，那麼北韓會認為南韓較為脆弱。 
  3. 韓國增加了用於自衛和對外銷售的國防生產額度，特別是其他國家對韓國製武器需求也在不斷增加。甚至有韓國人民呼籲政府獲得核武器。
  4. 韓國加強了與日本和美國在國防方面的合作。 
  • 菲律賓 ​​​​​​​
  1. 菲律賓計劃與美國、澳洲和日本合作，在與中國有領土爭端的南海開展聯合巡邏。 
  2. 菲律賓還允許華盛頓更多地使用菲律賓領土上的軍事設施。 
  3. 前總統杜特蒂讓中菲關係緊密很多，但北京並沒有給予菲律賓應有的好處，而是繼續欺負菲律賓。因此，杜特蒂的繼任者小斐迪南·馬可仕 (Ferdinand Marcos Jr.) 重新調整美菲及其盟友的關係。 
  • 其他國家 ​​​​​​​
  1. 新加坡和越南也與中國保持距離，允許美國在該地區擴大存在以阻止中國的主導地位。 
  2. 與中國一樣，印度也沒有就烏克蘭危機譴責俄羅斯。但是，印度參加了與美國、澳大利亞和日本的四方安全對話，以抗衡中國在印太地區的影響力。 

Summary: 
Why is China increasingly isolated? 
  • China constantly increases, modernizes, and improves the PLA, threatening neighboring countries. 
  • The CCP never controlled Taiwan island but constantly pressured the administration into reunification with the mainland. The CCP maintains the option for forced reunification of Taiwan. 
  • The final straw is China's equivocal support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine, driving Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines closer into US orbit as they fear the situation in Ukraine would recur in East Asia. 

Facing China's threat 
  • Japan ​​​​​​​
  1. Japan has stressed a peaceful Taiwan Strait is crucial for its security, but the situation has become urgent recently. 
  2. Japan amended its constitution regarding "self-defense" forces and procured long-range weapons from the US, which allowed it to strike foes outside Japan's territory. 
  • South Korea ​​​​​​​
  1. Like Japan, South Korea wished for a stable Taiwan Strait for its security and prosperity. 
  2. South Korea also anticipates North Korea will view it as vulnerable if it enters a US-China conflict over Taiwan. 
  3. South Korea increased its defense production for self-defense and sales, especially with rising overseas demands for its weapons. There are also appeals for the government to obtain nuclear weapons. 
  4. South Korea increased cooperation with Japan and the US in defense. ​​​​​​​
  • The Phillippines ​​​​​​​
  1. The Phillippines plans to cooperate with the US, Australia, and Japan for joint patrols in the South China Sea, where it has territorial disputes with China. 
  2. The Phillippines also granted Washington increased access to military facilities in its territory. 
  3. Former President Duterte associated the Philippines closer to Beijing, but Beijing did not reciprocate Duterte's generosity and continued to bully the Phillippines. Thus, Duterte's successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., realign the Philippines to the US and its allies. 
  • Others ​​​​​​​
  1. Singapore and Vietnam also distance themselves from China and allow a bigger US presence in the region to stop China's dominance. 
  2. Like China, India has not condemned Russia over the Ukrainian crisis. However, it participated in the semi-formal QUAD with the US, Australia, and Japan to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific.  
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