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FA: 巴基斯坦與中國賭博的愚蠢之舉
 
 

作者/Author(s): Husain Haqqani and Javid Ahmad 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/02/2022 

主題/Key Topics: BRI, Economic, Foreign Policy, South Asia 

 

摘要:

巴基斯坦因為對中國負有高額債務，這可能會使其上步斯里蘭卡的後塵對債務問題違約。但是，即使經濟衰退導致政治動盪，巴基斯坦領導人還是持續賭注，引進中國貸款以推動國家發展。

定時炸彈 

  • 巴基斯坦領導人無視因財政和貨幣政策管理不善產生的經濟生產力低落，這造成了 1310 億美元的債務問題，但其領導人仍然持續爭奪權力。 
  • 巴基斯坦政府沒有削減開支，而是從中國和國際貨幣基金組織借了更多的錢。 
  • 動蕩的政治和不團結的公民，使得巴基斯坦在債務危機上有著比斯里蘭卡更大的問題。 
 
中國的解決方案？ 
  • 中巴經濟走廊 (CPEC) 是「一帶一路」倡議下最大的單一國家投資計劃，其他外國的直接投資和援助跟巴基斯坦相比相去甚遠。
  • 中巴經濟走廊提升了中國在巴基斯坦的影響力，但損害了巴基斯坦的經濟生產力和民生需求，這讓巴基斯坦本就不穩定的政治局勢更加緊張。 
  • 儘管雙方簽訂了自由貿易協定，但巴基斯坦仍面臨著與中國缺乏貿易互惠的情況。 
  • 巴基斯坦將瓜達爾港租給中國40年，由中國海外港口控股公司—巴基斯坦分部(COPHC)(https://www.cophcgwadar.com/)經營。然而，該公司並不熱衷於擴建港口的基礎設施，也沒有吸引足夠的海上交通來產生利潤。 
  • 經濟多元化不足的國家被中國發展模式所吸引，只會帶來更多的債務，並增加它們對中國未來貸款救助的依賴。 
巴基斯坦能意識到自己的錯誤嗎？ 
  • 儘管實體受到威脅和襲擊，但中國和巴基斯坦在軍事合作方面仍然密切。
  • 巴基斯坦寄希望於中國能夠幫助其緩解日益惡化的社會、經濟和政治問題。
  • 相反，巴基斯坦需要減少自用方面的支出，以降低對中國的依賴。 
  • 巴基斯坦還需要更加信任印度和美國的援助，以防止全面淪陷。 
 
Summary: 
Pakistan may follow Sri Lanka’s footsteps into default due to its high debt obligation to China. Yet, Pakistani leaders still gamble on Chinese loans to drive national development despite political instability due to economic recession. 

A ticking-time-bomb 
  • Pakistan leaders ignored the low economic productivity caused by mismanagement of fiscal and monetary policies that led to a $131billion debt and continued to squabble for power. 
  • Instead of cutting spending, the Pakistani government borrowed even more from China and IMF. 
  • Pakistan poses a greater problem than Sri Lanka due to turbulent politics with disunited citizens.China the Solution? 
  • The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the largest single-country investment scheme under the BRI umbrella that dwarfs other foreign direct investments and aid. 
  • The CPEC boosted Chinese influence in Pakistan but undermined Pakistan’s economic productivity and livelihood, which added fuel to the political instability. 
  • Despite an FTA with China, Pakistan faces a lack of trade reciprocity with China. 
  • Pakistan leased the Gwadar Port to China for 40 years, and the Chinese Overseas Ports Holding Company-Pakistan operates the port. Yet, the company is not keen on expanding the port’s basic infrastructure and did not attract enough maritime traffic to generate profit. 
  • Countries with limited economic diversification attracted to China’s development model bring only further debt and increase their dependence on China for a future bailout. 
Can Pakistan Realize its Mistakes? 
  • Despite threats and attacks on Chinese entities, China and Pakistan remain close in military cooperation.
  • Pakistan bets on China to alleviate its worsening social, economy, and political problems. 
  • Instead, Pakistan needs to reduce its spending self-suffice to lower its dependence on China.  
  • Pakistan also needs to trust India and the US more for assistance to prevent a total fallout. 

 
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