編輯器
FP: 控制技術可以扼殺俄羅斯--就像蘇聯一樣 

作者/Author(s): Maria Shagina 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/22/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Economy, Technology 

摘要:

由西方協調出對俄羅斯的嚴厲制裁是前所未有的。大多數專家討論了制裁的經濟和金融影響,但很少討論導致蘇聯解體之出口管制的作用 

為什麼出口管制有效 

  • 出口管制限制了目標獲取某些戰略物資和關鍵技術的能力。它的成功取決於以下因素  
  1. 目標對象是否有其他辦法獲得貨物:當地生產,通過第三國躲避限制,得到破壞控制的公司的協助 
  2. 控制的嚴密性,受控物品的獨特性,以及供應鏈的集中性 
  • 出口管制需要很長時間才能生效,而且如果可以繞過出口管制,那其奏效的程度更低。通過與其他國家的協調行動,它將更加成功。然而,參與國可能出於安全和經濟利益的考慮而不願意。 
  • 西方通過對蘇聯和共產主義集團的多邊出口管制,成功地阻礙了蘇聯的軍事優勢
出口管制能阻礙俄羅斯嗎 
  • 出口管制降低了俄羅斯的戰爭能力 
  1. 出口管制限制了俄羅斯獲得戰略商品的途徑,因為俄羅斯的國防和製造業嚴重依賴進口戰略商品和技術 
  2. 俄羅斯旨在使其自給自足的進口替代計劃失敗了 
  • 俄羅斯可以繞過管制 
  1. 俄羅斯的軍民融合劃定了軍事和民用部門的界限正在不斷加強。俄羅斯通過在公司或研究機構的間諜行動獲得關鍵技術的信息 
  2. 西方國家免除了消費品的出口管制,允許俄羅斯從消費電子產品中回收微型晶片用於武器裝備 
  3. 如果無法在地理上識別和控制這些物品,俄羅斯可以從第三方中間商那裡獲取關鍵物品並將低技術消費品重新用於軍事用途 
Summary: 
The severe coordinated Western sanctions on Russia were unprecedented. Most experts discussed the economic and financial impact of the sanctions but rarely addressed the role of export control, which caused the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Why do export controls work? 
  • Export controls limit the target’s ability to acquire certain strategic goods and critical technologies. Its success is determined by:   
  1. Whether the target has alternatives to obtain the goods: local production, dodging restrictions through third countries, assistance from control-busting companies. 
  2. Tightness of the control, uniqueness of controlled items, and concentration of supply chains. 
  • Export controls take a long time to be effective and rarely work if they can be bypassed. It will be more successful through coordinated action with other countries. However, participating countries may be reluctant due to their security and economic interests. 
  • The West succeeded in hindering Soviet Union’s military advantage through multilateral export controls on the Soviet Union and the communist bloc. 
Can export controls impede Russia? 
  • Export control reduces Russia’s capacity for war: 
  1. Export controls limit Russia’s access to strategic commodities since Russia’s defense and manufacturing sectors rely heavily on imported strategic goods and technologies. 
  2. Russia failed in its import substitution program, which aimed to make Russia self-suffice. 
  • Russia can bypass the controls: 
  1. Russia’s military-civil fusion, which delineates the boundary between military and civilian sectors, is growing strong. Russia obtained information on critical technology through espionage operations in companies or research institutions. 
  2. The West exempted consumer goods from export controls, allowing Russia to salvage microchips from consumer electronics for use in military hardware. 
  3. Russia can acquire critical goods and repurpose low-technology consumer items for military use from third-party intermediaries if the items cannot be geographically identified and controlled.