作者/Author(s): Walter Russell Mead
網站來源/Source: Wall Street Journal 華爾街日報
日期/Date: August 8, 2022
關鍵字/Keywords: Foreign Policy
摘要:
佩洛西訪台有正面和負面的回應。積極來說，佩洛西加強了美國在印太地區對抗中國侵略性的承諾，並在中左翼民主黨人中強調了台灣防衛的重要性。然而，這次訪問引發了中國的強烈反對，顯示出其對東亞鄰國的好戰態度，扭轉了多年來為共同繁榮而採取的綏靖政策。中國有很多機會和藉口來展示其軍事實力，但佩洛西的訪問提供了最好的機會。此外，中國軍事實力日趨成熟源於美國過去幾十年外交政策動蕩的結果，導致其在戰略上被動，更對西太平洋大國競爭的危險無能為力。
美國的被動局面的後果：
- 佩洛西議長一心支持台灣，反對中共專制。不過，過去她本可以做得更多。佩洛西本可以聲援更高多的軍事準備和國防預算，或者向歐巴馬總統施壓以積極應對中國在南海的軍事基地建設。儘管在佩洛西的議長任期結束之前就對台灣表示了支持，但要扭轉美國在西太平洋軍事影響力下降的趨勢可能為時已晚。
- 台灣的出口仍然依賴中國大陸和香港。雖然全面入侵或封鎖尚未實現，但台灣和外國投資者可能會停止在台灣投資。
- 中國持續的經濟施壓和貿易抵制可能進一步損害台灣的經濟和技術增長。
- 東亞日益嚴重的安全動盪影響了美國親密盟友日本和韓國的關鍵貿易路線安全。這些國家的供應鏈若中斷，將損害全球經濟秩序，進而動搖美國的國際地位。
Summary:
There are positive and negative responses as a result of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. On a positive note, Pelosi reinforced US’s commitment to counter China’s aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific and highlighted the importance of Taiwan’s defense among center-left Democrats. However, the visit triggered a backlash from China, showing its belligerence to East Asian neighbors, reversing years of appeasement for shared prosperity. China had plenty of chances and excuses to demonstrate its military muscle, but Pelosi’s visit provided the best opportunity. Further, China’s maturing military strength resulted from the US’s turbulent foreign policy over the past decades, strategically passive and incompetent over the dangers of great power competition in the Western Pacific.
The aftermath of the US’s passivity:
- Speaker Pelosi wholeheartedly supports Taiwan and opposes the autocratic CCP. However, she could have done more in the past. Pelosi could have lauded higher military preparedness and more defense budgets or pressured President Obama to act actively in response to China’s the South China Sea military bases buildup. Despite showing support to Taiwan before Pelosi’s speakership ends, it may be too late to reverse the decline of the US’s military influence in the Western Pacific.
- Taiwan still depends on China and Hong Kong for exports. Although a full-scale invasion or blockade has not materialized, Taiwanese and foreign investors may cease investing in Taiwan.
- China’s continuous economic pressure and trade boycotts can further harm Taiwan’s economy and technology growth.
- The growing insecurity in East Asia affects the security of crucial trade routes for close US allies, Japan and South Korea. Disruption of the supply chain for these countries will also harm the global economic order, subsequently shaking US’s international position.