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CSIS: 威懾優先：將制裁俄羅斯的經驗教訓應用於中國 

作者/Author(s): Gerrard DiPippo 

原文來源/Source: CSIS 

日期/Date: 05/03/022 

主題/Key Topics: Economic 

摘要： 

美國近期對俄羅斯的經濟制裁結果喜憂參半，力度不夠，而這與美國的預測相反。如果將類似的策略應用於中國，它可能是無效的： 
  • 中國是一個較為穩健的經濟體，與其他國家的貿易相互依存度很高，因此，制裁可能只有通過與發達經濟體的協調機制才能發揮作用。 
  • 制裁威脅對俄羅斯不起作用，而破壞俄羅斯金融經濟穩定以引發國內報復僅在早期有效，沒有後續制裁的動作，也使俄羅斯得以復甦。 
  • 削弱俄羅斯維持長期軍事行動的能力是可行的，因為烏克蘭不斷通過陸路供應來耗盡俄羅斯的力量。 

台灣是一個島國，補給只能通過海上或空中進行，因此經濟威懾是必要的。為使經濟威懾取得成功，學者對美國提出了一些建議： 
  • 民族主義的目標可以戰勝經濟方面的邏輯。 
  • 提前與盟友協調，提早塑造北京的威脅認知。 
  • 清楚制裁的限制和後果。 
  • 如果越過了底線，則全面實施威脅制裁。 
 
Summary:
Economic sanctions toward Russia produced mixed results and were inadequate, contrary to US’s prediction. If similar tactics are applied to China, it may be ineffective:  
 
  • China is a more robust economy with high trade interdependence with other countries, thus, sanctions may only work through coordinated mechanisms with advanced economies.  
  • The threat of sanction does not work for Russia, while destabilizing Russia's financial economy to provoke domestic retaliation is effective only at early stages, and the lack of follow-up sanctions allows Russia to recover. 
  • Degrading Russia's capability to sustain long-term military operation works as Ukraine was constantly supplied through land routes to exhaust Russia's forces. 

Taiwan is an island country, and resupply can only occur by sea or air, making economic deterrence necessary. Some recommendations for the US were made to make economic deterrence successful:  
  • Nationalist objectives can win over economic logic.  
  • Coordinate with allies in advance to shape Beijing's threat perception earlier.  
  • Be clear about the limits and consequences of the sanctions.  
  • If the limits are crossed, impose threatened sanctions fully. 
 
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