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[書籍摘要] Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley 
 

作者/Author(s): Hal Brands and Michael Beckley 

出版社/Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company 

年份/Year: 2022 

主題/Key Topics : US-China Rivalry, Grand Strategy, Taiwan, Technology 

摘要:

Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China  之作者為 Hal Brands & Michael Beckley   ,兩位作者捕捉到了迫在眉睫的美中地緣政治衝突的原因和影響,以及如何防止全面衝突。兩位作者確定了兩個因素:野心和絕望,它們推動了中國目前的強硬態度。在 COVID-19 爆發之前,中國已準備好挑戰美國的霸權地位(第 1 章)。然而,惡劣的外部環境、人口下降、資源萎縮、國內威權主義抬頭、經濟困境逐漸關閉了中國獲得全球優勢以及和平統一台灣的機會(第2章和第3章)。作者將中國的現狀與歷史案例進行了比較。他們得出的結論是,當達到頂峰的大國經歷地緣政治包圍和經濟停滯時,他們會採取積極行動來確保其野心和國家利益(第 4 章)。事實上,中國(或中國共產黨)目前面臨著生存威脅和保持控制權的鬥爭,特別是在台灣問題上,將中國、美國和世界拖入危險地帶(第 5 章)。為了在危險地帶取得勝利,作者分析了導致蘇聯垮台的關鍵因素:冷酷無情、靈活應變、在受控衝突中冒險以及為長遠做好準備(第 6 章)。吸取冷戰的教訓,美國應該否認中國的技術領導地位,停止其數字威權主義,維護民主,保護台灣,為與中國的長期衝突做好準備,加強與歐洲的聯盟,並有一個靈活的對付中國的策略(第  7章)。最後,作者對新冷戰將如何解體進行了展望,並為美國在危險地帶長期航行提出了十條建議(第八章)。 
 

 Summary: 
Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley captures the causes and impacts of the looming US-China geopolitical clash and how to prevent an all-out conflict. Brands and Beckley identified two factors: ambition and desperation, that drove China’s current assertiveness. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, China was well-positioned to challenge US’s supremacy (Chapter 1). However, the hostile external environment, declining demography, shrinking resources, increasing domestic authoritarianism, and economic predicament gradually closed China’s opportunity for global superiority and peaceful reunification of Taiwan (Chapters 2 and 3). The authors compared China’s current situation with historical cases. They concluded that when peaking powers experience geopolitical encirclement and economic stagnation, they act aggressively to secure their ambitions and national interest (Chapter 4). In fact, China (or the Chinese Communist Party) currently faces existential threats and struggles to stay in control, especially on the Taiwan issue, dragging China, the US, and the world into a danger zone (Chapter 5). To emerge victorious in the danger zone, the authors analyzed the key factors that brought down the Soviet Union: prioritizing ruthlessly, being flexible, taking risks in controlled conflicts, and preparing for the long run (Chapter 6). Applying the lessons from the Cold War, the US should deny China’s technological leadership and stop its digital authoritarianism, safeguard democracies, protect Taiwan, prepare for a protracted conflict against China, bolster its alliance with Europe, and have a flexible playbook against China (Chapter 7). Finally, the authors provided a glimpse of how the new Cold War will unravel and ten recommendations for the US to navigate in the danger zone for an extended period (Chapter 8).