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War on the Rocks: 避險:重新評估中國對台灣的投射能力(Part 2) 

作者/Author(s): Collin Fox, Trevor Phillips-Levine, and Kyle Cregge 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 09/01/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Military Strategy, Logistics, Defense, Civil-Military 


摘要:
在二戰中,「希金斯登陸艇」允許美軍進行兩棲登陸,這對盟軍的勝利具有決定性意義。這是一個成功的軍民夥伴關係的例子,中國試圖效仿並用以入侵台灣。中國的軍民夥伴關係也促進了後勤,可以縮短入侵時間。本部分總結了中國的兩棲攻擊後勤保障能力。中國軍民兩用艦船的綜合能力使解放軍部隊能夠在台灣海岸登陸以獲得立足點。

 
但有幾個因素會影響中國的成功: 
  • 台灣的地理位置有利於防禦者而不是侵略者,這阻礙了解放軍進軍主要城市 
  • 解放軍的兩棲作戰能力無法對台灣進行大規模進攻,因為解放軍還不夠專業,缺乏聯合作戰經驗
  • 然而其他作戰隊伍,如特種作戰、傘兵和直升機,將被部署用以佔領關鍵港口  
  • 中國的軍事報告不斷強調民兵等非常規部隊在台灣入侵中的重要性,尤其是海上後勤,甚至將民用船隻的使用納入軍事演習
火力支援在掩護入侵部隊方面起著至關重要的作用
  • 傳統上,海軍火力支援為入侵部隊提供掩護,而對於解放軍來說,它可以通過局部空中支援來加強 
  • 日本防衛研究所(National Institute of Defense Studies)對解放軍的改革進行了評估,得出的結論是解放軍在聯合作戰方面表現更好
  • 解放軍的空中和火箭力量顯著提高,提供了更好的火力支援。中國可以準備足夠的彈藥來攻擊台灣的防空和彈藥工廠,並阻止空中和海上補給,從而耗盡台灣的庫存。 
  • 中國只需要用「遊蕩彈藥」(Loitering Munition控制當地的空中優勢,就可以壓制台灣的防禦力量並協助入侵部隊 
Summary: 
In WWII, the Higgins boats allowed the US forces to conduct amphibious landings, which was decisive for allied victory. It is an instance of a successful civil-military partnership that China seeks to emulate for invading Taiwan. China’s civil-military partnership also facilitated logistics, which can shorten the invasion time. This part summarizes China’s logistics and support capabilities for amphibious assault. 

 
China’s combined military and civilian vessel capacity allow PLA forces to land on Taiwan’s shore to gain a foothold. But several factors will affect China’s success: 
  • Taiwan’s geography favors defenders rather than invaders, hampering PLA’s push into major cities.
  • PLA’s amphibious capabilities cannot enforce a major assault on Taiwan because the PLA is unprofessional and inexperienced with joint operations. 
  • However, other squadrons, such as special operations, paratroopers, and helicopters, will be deployed to seize crucial ports. 
  • China’s military reports constantly emphasized the importance of militias and other non-conventional forces in Taiwan’s invasion, especially for on-sea logistics, and even integrated the use of civilian ships into military exercises.  
Fire support plays a crucial role in covering invasion forces:
  •  Traditionally, naval fire support provides cover for invasion forces, and for the PLA, it can be fortified with local air support. 
  • The National Institute of Defense Studies, Japan, evaluated PLA’s reform and concluded that PLA is better in its joint operations. 
  • PLA’s air and rocket force significantly improved, allowing better fire support. China could prepare sufficient munitions to attack Taiwan’s air defenses and ammunition factories and block air and sea resupply, depleting Taiwan’s stockpile. 
  • China needs only to control local air superiority with loitering munition to suppress Taiwan’s defense forces and assist invasion forces.