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Politico: 中國對台海中線的侵犯表明其在「彩排」對台斬首行動 

作者/Author(s): Phelim Kine 

原文來源/Source: Politico 

日期/Date: 09/01/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Military 

摘要：
中國越過戴維斯線(Davis line)（台灣海峽中線）入侵的次數有增加趨勢，表明在佩洛西訪問後中國無意減少在台灣海峽的軍事侵略。 
 

為什麼中國的行動意義重大？ 

  • 這與北京和台北之間長期以來為了防止誤判引發軍事衝突的共識相矛盾。 
  • 中國不再進行自我控制，打算為可接受的軍事挑釁制定新標準，主張其對領土的所有權，並為台灣的入侵進行預演。 
  • 這表明中國希望將其軍隊投射到更靠近台灣的地方，而這可能會導致大規模入侵。 
  • 目前，中國在南北兩端附近越過界線，而不是向島嶼方向越線，以防止誤認為解放軍正在演練對島上主要城市的直接攻擊。 
美國可以做甚麼? 
  • 中國的行動考驗美國保護台灣的意願，但拜登政府並沒有明確的策略來阻止中國的威脅
  • 透過自由航行行動(Freedom of Navigation Operations)，美國可以派出飛彈巡洋艦駛過台灣海峽。 
  • 拜登政府計劃要求國會批准向台灣出售價值約 11 億美元的武器，包括反艦和防空飛彈。 
  • 美方可能會曲解中方模棱兩可的挑釁行為，反而限制了報復的選擇和時間。
台灣的回應： 
  • 在中國用民用無人機挑釁金門的情況下，台灣重申，如果解放軍真的進入其領土領空和水域，它將進行報復。 
  • 中國的行動使台灣軍方處於高度戒備狀態，以評估來襲的解放軍飛機的威脅程度並制定適當的應對措施，進而使台灣空軍的壓力更大。 
Summary:
China’s increase of incursions across the Davis line - a median line separating China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait – indicates that it has no intention of scaling down its military aggressiveness in the Taiwan Strait after Pelosi’s visit. 

Why is China’s action significant? 
  • It contradicted a long-term unspoken consensus between Beijing and Taipei to prevent miscalculations that will cause military clashes. 
  • China no longer exercises self-control, intending to create a new standard for an acceptable military provocation, asserting its ownership over the territory, and rehearsing for Taiwan’s invasion. 
  • It indicates that China wants to project its military closer to Taiwan, which may lead to a large-scale invasion. 
  • Currently, China crosses the line near the southern and northern tips rather than towards the island to prevent misperceptions that PLA is rehearsing direct attacks on major cities on the island. 
What can the US do? 
  • China’s action tests the US’s will to protect Taiwan, but the Biden administration does not have a clear strategy to obstruct China’s threats. 
  • The US sent guided missile cruisers to sail through Taiwan Strait as a FONOP operation. 
  • Biden administration plans to ask congressional approval for arms sales worth an estimated $1.1 billion to Taiwan, including anti-ship and anti-air missiles. 
  • The US may misinterpret China’s ambiguous provocation, limiting the choices and time for retaliation.
 Taiwan’s response: 
  • Taiwan iterated that it would retaliate if PLA did enter its territorial airspace and waters amid China’s provocation in Kinmen with a civilian drone. 
  • China’s action put the Taiwan military on high alert to evaluate the threat level of incoming PLA aircraft and formulate an appropriate response, stressing the Taiwanese Air force more. 
 
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