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FA: 中國還沒有達到其實力的巔峰

作者/Author(s): Oriana Skylar Mastro 

網站來源/Source:外交事務》 Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: August 22, 2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Economic, Military


摘要:
學者們爭論,習近平是否還有機會讓台灣與大陸統一。「中國衰落說」認為,令人震驚的人口和經濟困境減緩了中國的增長,也限制了中國對抗美國和實現兩岸統一目標的能力。另一種說法認為,中國可以緩解目前的情況,並積累更多的資源,拉長時間超過美國在亞洲的軍事力量,而意味著中國要可以對台灣的統一問題保持耐心。 

能夠改變命運?
  • 儘管人口和勞動力下降,但經濟衰退不會突然發生。中國經濟仍然可以增長,並且憑藉其積累的財富和技術能力,中國仍然會是全球最大的經濟體之一。 
  • 中國的債務問題令人擔憂。伴隨著其人口的減少,中國的債務將更加繁重,但這些問題只會使經濟增長逐漸放緩。因此,中國仍有資源用於軍事和其他投資。 
  • 中共對創新的阻撓是另一個令人擔憂的原因。中國對其本土科技產業的強制力阻礙了產業之間的競爭。然而,以其目前的政策,中國可以投資於推動經濟發展的現代技術,並與美國某些部門的技術發展維持同步。 
在東亞地區挑戰美國
  • 解放軍在現代化建設的同時,也在不斷完善其後備,同時積極招收大學畢業生 
  • 中國朝向專門針對亞洲的軍事投射能力發展,並強調威脅美軍在東亞的不對稱能力
  • 儘管中國當前面臨經濟困難,但其對未來的全球實力充滿信心,這表明中國的實力仍在增長 
  • 儘管可能需要更多的時間,習近平會需要等待台灣的和平統一,或者如果他有信心解放軍能夠迅速佔領台灣,則可以使用強制統一 
Summary:

Scholars debated whether Xi Jinping still has the chance to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.  

The declining China narrative argued that alarming demographic and economic difficulties restrict and slow China’s growth, limiting China’s ability to confront the US and realize the reunification goal. Another narrative suggests that China can alleviate current circumstances and accumulate more resources to outperform US’s military in Asia in the long term, meaning China can be patient in Taiwan’s reunification. 

Changing the destiny? 

  • Despite the declining demography and labor force, the economic decline will not happen abruptly. China’s economy can still grow and remain one of the top economies with its accumulated wealth and technology capacity. 
  • China’s outstanding debt problem is a cause for concern. Along with the demographic decline, China’s debt will be more burdensome, but it will only slow economic growth steadily. Consequently, China still has the resources for military and other investments.  
  • China’s outstanding debt problem is a cause for concern. Along with the demographic decline, China’s debt will be more burdensome, but it will only slow economic growth steadily. Consequently, China still has the resources for military and other investments.  
Challenging the US in East Asia
  • China proved it could compete militarily with the US even with lesser resources. 
  • While PLA’s modernization is still taking place, it is improving its reserves and actively recruiting college graduates. 
  • China is focused on Asia’s military projection, emphasizing asymmetric capabilities that threaten US forces in East Asia. 
  • China is confident about its future global power despite its current economic woes, signifying that China’s power is still growing. 
  • Xi may wait for a peaceful Taiwan reunification, although it may take longer, or uses forced reunification if he is confident that PLA can occupy Taiwan swiftly.