作者/Author(s): Jimmy Goodrich 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 02/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、軍事、晶片、國家安全


摘要：
一些反對美國管制先進晶片與製造設備出口的聲音認為，這些措施是不必要的，因為美軍不直接使用這些晶片，他們可以依賴舊型晶片。然而，這個論點忽略了高效能運算系統 (HPC) 的重要性，因為國家安全需要最先進的晶片。 
  • 美國國家安全局（NSA）與國家核安全管理局（NNSA）已明確表示，高效能運算系統對於現代武器與國防系統的設計、開發與分析至關重要。因此，確保先進晶片的供應鏈非常重要。 
  • 「高效能運算系統」是美國國防創新、嚇阻能力和技術優勢的核心。 
  1. 核武器管理：高效能運算系統負責運行先進核計算程式，並模擬未實際引爆的核試驗，以便準確評估核彈頭的安全性與可靠性。這也標誌著美國的核威脅可信度，同時不會損害全球防擴散安全倡議。 
  2. 高超音速武器研究：高超音速彈道飛彈的設計與測試極為複雜，且進行實驗的成本與風險極高。高效能運算系統能夠模擬高超音速武器的空氣動力、推進力和熱能特性，讓科學家可以不斷改進設計。 
  3. 現代潛艦：高效能運算系統可預測新型潛艦在深海中的運作模式，協助設計過程，提升潛艦的隱匿性與生存能力。 
  4. 太空戰略布局：高效能運算系統協助美國太空與空軍研究實驗室提升太空領域意識（space domain awareness），幫助辨識對地球可能構成威脅的因素。 
  5. 生物防禦：高效能運算系統可模擬複雜的流行病模型，加快研究疾病爆發、疫苗開發與應對措施。 
  6. 情報作戰：高效能運算系統對情報蒐集與分析至關重要，可運行高強度密碼學運算，快速破解攔截的通訊內容。 
  7. 高效能運算系統幫助美國理解對手的武器能力，並協助美國設計最佳防禦系統。 
  • 美國的競爭對手，包括中國，早已意識到高效能運算系統與先進晶片，在國家安全與全球戰略競爭中的重要性，並積極投資高效能運算系統領域，以削弱或超越美國在軍用高效能運算系統領域的領先地位。 
  • 因此，出口管制對於美國國防至關重要。美國不僅需要保持高效能運算系統優勢，還必須防止對手獲取這些能力與先進晶片，以維護自身的技術與軍事優勢。 
Summary: 
Some opponents of the US's export control on advanced chips and chipmaking equipment claimed that the measures are unnecessary because the US military does not use them and they could rely on legacy chips. However, this argument missed the importance of high-performance computing systems (HPCs) that require the most advanced chips available for national security. 
  • The US National Security Agency and the National Nuclear Security Administration explicitly declared the importance of HPCs for designing, developing, or analyzing modern weapon and defense systems. Therefore, securing access to advanced chips is necessary. 
  • HPCs are the core of US defense innovation, deterrence capability, and technological supremacy. 
  1. Nuclear weapons stewardship: HPCs run advanced nuclear code and simulate nuclear tests without actual detonation to enable accurate assessment of nuclear warhead's safety and reliability. It also signifies the US's nuclear deterrence credibility without undermining global non-proliferation norms. 
  2. Hypersonic weapons research: Hypersonic missiles are highly complex to design and test. Conducting real-world experimentation is also costly and risky. HPCs could simulate hypersonic weapons' aerodynamics, propulsion, and thermal properties, allowing scientists to refine the design. 
  3. Modern submarines: HPCs could predict how new submarine designs will operate deep underwater before building any physical prototype, bolstering submarines' stealth and survivability. 
  4. Space posture: HPCs assist the US Space Force and Air Force Research Laboratory in enhancing space domain awareness and identifying potential threats to the Earth. 
  5. Biodefense: HPCs could run complex epidemiological models to hasten studies on disease outbreaks, vaccines, and countermeasures. 
  6. Intelligence operations: HPCs are vital for collecting and analyzing intelligence. They are also essential for running complex cryptography and decrypting intercepted communications quickly. 
  7. HPCs are necessary to help the US understand adversaries' weapons capabilities and assist the US in designing the best defense system. 
  • US rivals, including China, have long realized the importance of HPCs and advanced chips for national security and global strategic advantages. They have already invested in attaining HPC leadership to undermine or surpass the US lead in military-use HPCs. 
  • Therefore, the export controls are necessary for the US's national defense. Furthermore, the US must retain its HPC advantage and prevent its opponents from attaining such capabilities and advanced chips. 
 
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