作者/Author(s): Aaron L. Friedberg 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/06/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、關稅 

摘要：

美國可以對中國產品徵收廣泛的關稅，但應集中針對那些關乎國家及經濟安全、容易受到中國威脅的產品。 

  • 目標不是要限制所有中國產品，也不是將美國經濟與中國徹底脫鉤，這類行動非常多餘且適得其反。
  • 對中國產品徵收關稅可以讓美國從其他生產國採購物品，重新調整供應鏈，並減輕通膨壓力。 
  • 鑒於中國可能通過中介國家轉運產品，美國也需提升對進口商品中中國成分的評估技術。 
  1. 這將有助於準確地校正進口關稅，減少關稅規避，並識別潛在脆弱性。 
  2. 此外，這也能讓新的生產者，尤其是發展中國家，建立本土的產業能力，減少對中國進口的依賴，同時增加出口利潤。 
  • 美國可提供激勵措施以振興製造業，將對國家安全至關重要的產品生產帶回國內，減少浪費，並發展具競爭力的產業。 
  • 結盟經濟對於確保美國政策的有效性及降低成本至關重要。 
  1. 已開發經濟體可以與美國協調關稅政策，共享數據，並開發內容溯源技術。
  2. 這個聯盟還可以合作開採和加工關鍵礦物。 
  3. 如果盟國不願對中國採取行動，美國可以實施川普時期針對盟國產品的關稅作法。然而，這可能引發盟國的報復，使美國陷入多邊貿易戰。
  4. 對中國大幅徵收關稅可能會迫使所有國家與美國站在一起，因為這些國家將成為中國傾銷行為的下一個目標，本土經濟安全受到嚴重威脅。 
  5. 然而，如果美國推行過於廣泛的單邊政策，可能會引發盟國的不信任，並使在其他與中國相關的問題上進行合作變得更加複雜。中國也可能藉機削弱美國與盟國的關係，吸引更多經濟體進入其影響範圍。 
Summary: 
The U.S. could impose broad tariffs on Chinese products. However, it must focus on items critical to national and economic security and vulnerable to China's threat.  
  • The aim is not to restrict all Chinese products and decouple the U.S. economy from China because such moves are redundant and may backfire. 
  • Tariffs on Chinese products allow the U.S. to source items from other producers, realign its supply chain, and mitigate inflationary pressure. 
  • Since China may direct its products through intermediary countries, the U.S. must also improve its evaluation techniques for assessing the value of Chinese content in goods imported from other countries.  
  1. This will allow for better calibration of import duties, reduce tariff invasion, and identify hidden vulnerabilities. 
  2. It will also allow new producers, especially developing economies, to create indigenous industrial capacity, reducing reliance on Chinese imports while increasing export profit. 
  • The U.S. could provide incentives to revitalize its manufacturing sector, bringing home the production of goods essential for national security, reducing waste, and developing competitive industries.  
  • Allied economies are crucial in ensuring U.S. policies' effectiveness and lowering costs.
  1. Advanced economies could coordinate tariffs policies with the U.S., share date, and develop content-tracing methods. 
  2. The coalition could cooperate to source and refine critical minerals. 
  3. If allied economies are reluctant to act against China, the U.S. could follow through with Trump's tariff on allies' products. However, it may also risk retaliation from them, putting the U.S. in a multi-front trade war. 
  4. Drastic tariffs on China could compel all countries to align with the U.S. because they will be the next target of Chinese dumping practices, hurting their economic security. 
  5. However, if the U.S. pursued overbroad unilateral policies, it may breed mistrust among allies and complicate cooperation on other issues related to China. China may also take the opportunity to fracture the U.S. relations with its allies and pull more economies into its orbit. 
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